ok then, since we've all got our brains warmed up on stu's thread, lets see what you guys make of this one...

 

a contestant on a gameshow is asked to pick one of three mystery doors. behind one of the doors is a prize (don't know what but i'm sure its dead good!)

 

after the contestant picks one of the doors, the host then opens one of the doors that wasn't picked to reveal that there is nothing behind it. the contestant is then offered the choice to stay with his/her original choice or switch to the other one.

 

does the contestant have a better, worse or equal chance of winning if he/she chooses the other box? discuss.

Originally posted by Peter Hood

Although it's dependant on the host knowing what's behind each door.

 

This is the key point - the puzzle is NOT random at this stage. The host removing the box always removes an empty one. There would be no point in removing the one with the prize in, would there?

 

;) Gio

SMW1

Originally posted by smw1

SMW1 We're not arguing with anyone other than you! Everyone else accepted the correct answer what seems like days ago! :D

I'd choose the blue pill... :D

sorry dave, it looks like i left you on your own all night to argue this one out. did we win in the end then?

Originally posted by ste

did we win in the end then?

I think so. Stuart knows we're right, but he can't bring himself to admit he's wrong! :D

OK, OK,

 

Lets settle this once and for all ?

 

How about if there wasn't a prize eh ? and there were 4 doors instead of 3 ?.

:p

:D

 

Had you going for about 60 posts though didn't I LMAO !!!!

Originally posted by smw1

Had you going for about 60 posts though didn't I LMAO !!!!

Yeah right! :p

 

Anyway, there's only James left who doesn't get it now! :D

Oh I get it all right

But you are wrong it's not better it's the same :D

Yeah!!! Stu's right! LOL :D

The selection of 1 of the doors with nothing behind it is biased because the selection of this is ONLY from the 2 NOT chosen. This results in the following..........

 

1 in 3 chance---------->If he has picked the one with the prize behind initially, then the elimination of one without a prize means he should not change

 

2 in 3 chance------------>If he has picked one of the ones without the prize behind initially, then the elimination of the other one without a prize means he should change

 

Therefore, to change is TWICE the odds(2/3) of getting a prize than to stay with initial choice (1/3).

 

So it's better to CHANGE ............... Probability is all based on information - more information alters odds.

 

;) :) ;) :)

 

I won't be near a computer for a week - so speak to u lot l8er ;)

You boring tw@ts!

Trainspotting anyone? :D LOL

Originally posted by ChrisC

You boring tw@ts!

Trainspotting anyone? :D LOL

 

ur only jealous !:D ;) :p

Fooking class! I thought this was done and dusted last night :D

 

Hands up if you've tried it on someone at work etc and ended up arguing! Love it!!

 

If I'm right in thinking...there are only 9 possibilities:

 

Pick A. A is right. Host removes B or C. If we don't change, we win. If we change, we lose.

Pick A. B is right. Host removes C. If we don't change, we lose. If we change, we win.

Pick A. C is right. Host removes B. If we don't change, we lose. If we change, we win.

 

Pick B. A is right. Host removes C. If we don't change, we lose. If we change, we win.

Pick B. B is right. Host removes A or C. If we don't change, we win. If we change, we lose.

Pick B. C is right. Host removes A. If we don't change, we lose. If we change, we win.

 

Pick C. A is right. Host removes B. If we don't change, we lose. If we change, we win.

Pick C. B is right. Host removes A. If we don't change, we lose. If we change, we win.

Pick C. C is right. Host removes A or B. If we don't change, we win. If we change, we lose.

 

So, if we don't change, we win 3 out of 9.

If we do change, we win 6 out of 9.

 

Surely you can't argue with that, can you? :D:D:D

 

Pete

Originally posted by pete shrimp

Surely you can't argue with that, can you? :D:D:D

Looks absolutely perfect to me! :D

Pick A. A is right. Host removes B or C. If we don't change, we win. If we change, we lose.

Pick A. B is right. Host removes C. If we don't change, we lose. If we change, we win.

Pick A. C is right. Host removes B. If we don't change, we lose. If we change, we win.

 

Pick B. A is right. Host removes C. If we don't change, we lose. If we change, we win.

Pick B. B is right. Host removes A or C. If we don't change, we win. If we change, we lose.

Pick B. C is right. Host removes A. If we don't change, we lose. If we change, we win.

 

Pick C. A is right. Host removes B. If we don't change, we lose. If we change, we win.

Pick C. B is right. Host removes A. If we don't change, we lose. If we change, we win.

Pick C. C is right. Host removes A or B. If we don't change, we win. If we change, we lose.

 

I like the way it says A is right, B is right, C is right for the possibilities!!! Where is the random factor in that??

 

You're missing the point of... A is right.......oh, A is right again! Thats 2 we've one without changing our minds if A is correct. Get what I'm saying? I am ready for any reply!!! LMFAO!

 

Thank-you.

Although it look slike it's me and James v the rest of the forum on this one.

 

I'm sticking with my guns.

Originally posted by smw1

Although it look slike it's me and James v the rest of the forum on this one.

 

I'm sticking with my guns.

 

Please use them on anyone else who replies to this thread! :D

Originally posted by ChrisC

Please use them on anyone else who replies to this thread! :D

Chris, if it makes you feel mentally inadequate because you don't understand the question, just stop reading the thread! :p

 

:D

Originally posted by ChrisC

Please use them on anyone else who replies to this thread! :D

 

ROFL :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

oh sh!t... does that mean me now? i probably deserve it for stating this thread in the first place. (i'm still right though :D )